Interest Rates are going up

We have been hearing forever how the bubble is going to burst, and interest rates can't stay low forever.

In fact, The Wall Street Journal polled 56 economists, and 55 agree: Long-term interest rates will RISE in 2005.

Youch!

No worries though. As it turns out, http://www.ArborResearch.com has found that in the last 6 Wall Street Polls, the "experts" have predicted rising interest rates in each and every poll. However, interest rates have of course moved down.

Not only that, interest rates have been consistently moving down since the early 1980s, and the experts have consistently predicted incorrectly. With all due respect to the Journal, these guys suck. My 6 year old could have been right, more often.

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud,President, Investment U alerted me to this silliness through his online letter.

He says, "The actual forecasting record of the world's highest paid financial "experts" for forecasting interest rates is nothing short of disastrous...

...Since 1982, the beginning of Wall Street Journal's Forecasting Survey, the experts have gotten the direction of interest rates right in their predictions less than one third of the time.

Said another way, you or I could have flipped a coin as our prediction of the direction of interest rates. And we would have crushed the predictions of the experts.Right now, 55 out of 56 experts are predicting higher long-term interest rates in 2005.Most people will believe these forecasts. If they have any value at all, it is as a contrary indicator... Which tells us that interest rates may well fall in 2005."