Yesterday, little Chapman U of Orange County came out and said look for recession next year with more blood spilt in real estate. They are predicting a national recession with the first decline in jobs locally in five years in 2008.
Economists at the school see a brief downturn—with a decline in the national economy in first and second quarters, and then a pickup in the second half.
They do however, see the national economy growing 0.9%, driven by growth in the second half.
UCLA comes out today and says it irresponsible to use "r" word.
"Now there are countless prognosticators throwing around recession. That may be the best indicator that a recession is not coming soon," stated Ed Leamer, director of the University of California, Los Angeles, Anderson Forecast.
"Better remember a recession is not measured by the frequency with which the newspapers use the 'R' word. To have an official recession commencing anytime soon, we would have to experience a rapid rise of the national unemployment rate" from a level of 4.6 percent to about 6 percent by the end of 2008 -- a loss of about 2 million jobs.
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