Figures Lie and Liars Figure

The Times L.A. Land Blog points out that foreclosure statistics that are often quoted, may be skewed.

The Los Angeles Times tends to rely on stats from DataQuick Information Systems. The La Jolla-based research firm has been collecting data for almost 20 years and is not in the business of selling its info to consumers. It also provides separate stats of initial notices of defaults -- the first step in the foreclosure process -- and notices of trustee sale -- the last notice the homeowner receives from the bank. That makes month-to-month or year-over-year comparisons more meaningful.

I asked RealtyTrac to provide The Times with a similar breakdown of third-quarter foreclosures notices in the Inland Empire. This is what they sent:

Riverside County -- 12,240 Notices of Default and 3,036 Notices of Trustee Sale
San Bernardino County -- 10,358 NoDs and 3,036 NTS

By contrast, DataQuick's third-quarter numbers show fewer filings in both categories:

Riverside County -- 9,250 NoDs and 3,462 NTS
San Bernardino County -- 7,038 NoDs and 2,255 NTS

I would add that Data quick also has a customer. Albeit not the consumer, but it does have a customer it must cater to.

So which numbers get used? Google "RealtyTrac" and you get news sites that quote this company as as if they were a data comapny when they are a "marketplace for foreclosure listings" . Where is the journalism? Its like a great high school football recruit asking great USC Coach Pete Carroll where he should play football.

But isn't this pervasive throughout not just the real estate industry but also our Country?

Both sides of the political arena have learned to use statistics, polls, and studies to make their point. One day an Egg is good for you, then it is not. Carbs are good. Now they are bad.

It is everywhere and the data is being used to mean whatever a side with an agenda wants it to mean. And we just sit back and watch because it is nearly impossible to research and put together what this L.A. Times Blogger did. Who said blogging is the death of journalism?

However, in his most recent post (I never said the Times blog was a real estate positive blog) this blogger from The Times quotes Well Fargo Chairman John Stumpf :

"We have not seen a nationwide decline in housing like this since the Great Depression," Stumpf said at a banking conference in New York.

The Big D? Now, I have to call into question the responsibility of this statement. Is the Chairman making this point to warn us all of impending doom? (mmm from all accounts it looks like retailers are looking at record sales this Christmas). Or is this cheap positioning?

You see Wells Fargo is one of the few institutions that can walk away from the real estate run up unscathed.

I mean take a look at Google News. It look like a Skitso put it together. Who the hell can you believe?

Forrester Research estimates online retail sales between Thanksgiving and Christmas will rise 21% compared to a year ago as shoppers do more gift-buying ...

OR....

Black-Friday Cheer May Not Save Christmas For Retailers
CNNMoney.com - 1 hour ago
Already, there are signals that this year's hype and discounts may shatter a few records: Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), for instance, began hawking Black ...
Retailers Come Calling, Literally, for the Holidays Wall Street Journal
Are you okay with Christmas in October The CEU Eagle Online
Retailers brace for gloomy holidays, gloomier '08 CNNMoney.com

OR....

From CNNmoney:

Bolstering that dim view, both Wal-Mart and Macy's Inc. (M) this week gave downbeat outlooks for holiday sales, although they said tightly managed inventory will protect profits. J.C. Penney Co. (JCP), meanwhile, admitted it was caught off-guard by the recent slowdown in spending. Both Penney and its middle-market rival Kohl's Corp. (KSS) slashed forecasts for fourth-quarter earnings, anticipating heavy markdowns through the end of the year.

But we as Americans and the Real Estate industry put up with statistical game playing for political and marketing reasons for too long.

What if the Lenders "Zillowed" their appraisals? It would never happen, but then why is a Company like this getting fed Millions of dollars to build a Company based on faulty assumptions that affectively can mislead consumers into believing their home is worth something it is not?

But the Internet has taken this to a new level hasn't it?  Anyone with a keyboard can claim instant status as a Guru and sell anything. The Internet Marketing arena is full of faulty claims with writers who wouldn't know SEO from CEO telling agents what they should and should't do. My goodness, if I hear one more time how an Alt tag or Keyword Meta is a big deal in SEO, I think I will scream.

And I have seen companies publish entire marketing methodologies that make sense accept they do not work in practice. They are never caught because the general public(agents) are too busy being agents to know the difference. Agents are easy for these companies because face it, we salesmen are all suckers for the Get Rich Quick Pitch.

I am all for framing a debate. That is marketing really. But at what point does marketing become a con?

Comments

[Tax Liens]

Great points.....Blogs are becoming the main source of knowing about things certainty, its importance, idolizing, either in a marketing way that one can differentiate